Is XRP About To Replicate Its January Rally?

While the crypto market oscillates between economic uncertainties and renewed optimism, XRP finds itself once again at the center of attention. On the charts, a familiar pattern reappears—the same one that preceded a spectacular 70% surge last January. Is it a simple technical coincidence or the precursor to a new bullish rally? Signals are piling up, analysts are questioning, and the stakes are high: is XRP about to replay its explosive scenario?

In Brief

• XRP is currently reproducing a chart pattern identical to the one observed before its +70% rally last January.
• A falling wedge pattern is forming, accompanied by similar technical signals, notably on moving averages and RSI.
• The price is testing a critical zone: a breakout could trigger a new bullish move towards $3.75, or even $4.
• Meanwhile, fundamentals of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) are strengthening with over 70 million transactions in July.

A Technical Signal in Formation: Towards a New Bullish Breakout?

The daily chart of XRP reveals a falling wedge structure, while selling pressure has intensified across the crypto market. Currently, the XRP price is moving within this well-known chart pattern. This very setup had preceded a 70% increase from December 2024 to January 2025, propelling the token from $2 to $3.39. At the beginning of August, an identical structure appears to be forming. XRP is consolidating in a new falling wedge after a strong bullish impulse, while finding technical support on its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50). The currently observed on-chain data reinforce the thesis of a repetition of the bullish scenario:
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned from overbought levels to stabilize around 50, as was the case before the January rally.
• The price is testing the upper limit of the falling wedge; a breakout could trigger a target of $3.75, representing a potential +20% gain.
• If it fails, XRP could fall back to the EMA 50, or even down to $2.34, near the 200-day moving average.
The similarities between the two setups suggest that XRP could be on the verge of a new bullish move. However, caution remains warranted as long as the technical breakout is not confirmed.

XRP Also Appeals on Fundamentals

Beyond technical considerations, the underlying activity of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) strengthens the bullish scenario. Over 70 million transactions were processed on the network in July, while more than one million new accounts have been created since the beginning of the year, according to Dune Analytics. In a context where real adoption is often scrutinized as a long-term valuation criterion, these figures offer a sharp contrast with the apparent volatility of crypto. The growth of stablecoins on the XRPL has been a major component of this network dynamic. For example, in Brazil, Braza Bank issued over $4.2 million of its stablecoin BBRL on the XRPL network in July, making this token the second largest stablecoin in Brazilian real (BRL), just behind Transfero Group’s BRZ. In the United States, the RLUSD stablecoin, issued by Ripple, saw its daily transfer volume more than double in one month, rising from 5,000 to over 12,000 transfers per day. These elements reflect a growing adoption of tokenized solutions via the XRPL, far beyond mere speculative frameworks. This rise in real network use could reinforce the positive sentiment surrounding XRP by bringing economic legitimacy to the currently observed chart signals. Furthermore, a more favorable macroeconomic environment, notably a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September, could further catalyze interest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. If the bullish scenario is confirmed, the symbolic $4 threshold could be tested in the coming weeks.

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Source: Is XRP About To Replicate Its January Rally? by Luc Jose Adjinacou, published August 5, 2025.

FAQ

Technical Analysis & Chart Patterns

Q: What is a falling wedge pattern? A: A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern characterized by converging trendlines, where the price action moves lower within a narrowing range. It typically indicates a potential reversal of a downtrend and a subsequent upward price movement. Q: What does it mean when XRP is testing the upper limit of a falling wedge? A: Testing the upper limit of a falling wedge suggests that XRP is approaching a potential breakout point. A confirmed breakout above this resistance level could signal the start of a new bullish trend. Q: How does the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate bullish sentiment? A: When the RSI moves from overbought levels and stabilizes around 50, it can indicate that selling pressure is easing and the asset is entering a more balanced territory, which often precedes a bullish rally.

Fundamental Analysis & Network Activity

Q: What is the significance of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) transaction volume? A: High transaction volume on the XRPL, such as over 70 million transactions in July, indicates increased network activity and adoption, which can be a positive fundamental indicator for XRP's value. Q: How do stablecoin growths on XRPL impact XRP's outlook? A: The growth of stablecoins on the XRPL, like BBRL and RLUSD, signifies real-world utility and increasing adoption of tokenized solutions, which can bolster the economic legitimacy and positive sentiment around XRP.

Market Outlook & Price Targets

Q: What is the potential price target if XRP breaks out of the falling wedge? A: A confirmed breakout from the falling wedge could lead to a potential price target of $3.75, representing a significant gain. Q: What are the risks if XRP fails to break out of the falling wedge? A: If XRP fails to break out, it might retrace its steps to the 50-day EMA or even fall towards the 200-day moving average, potentially reaching $2.34.

Crypto Market AI's Take

The technical pattern and fundamental growth signals for XRP are certainly intriguing, suggesting a potential for a significant upward move. At Crypto Market AI, we leverage advanced AI and machine learning to analyze such market dynamics. Our AI-powered trading bots and market intelligence tools continuously monitor these patterns, providing users with data-driven insights. Understanding these technical formations, like the falling wedge, and correlating them with on-chain data is crucial for making informed trading decisions. For those interested in exploring AI-driven trading strategies, our platform offers AI trading bots that can help navigate these complex market movements. Additionally, for a deeper understanding of how cryptocurrencies gain value, our guide on how do cryptocurrencies gain value can provide further context.

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