Bitcoin ’Tick Tock’ Fractal Predicts $150K BTC Price Top in October

Bitcoin may be entering the final leg of its current bull market cycle, with historical halving-based fractals suggesting that the next major market top could arrive by October 2025, just three months away.

Bitcoin May Peak Around $150,000 by October

A recurring “tick-tock” fractal tracked by analyst CryptoBullet shows that Bitcoin tends to peak approximately 518 to 546 days after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred on April 15, 2024. As of late July 2025, Bitcoin has reached a point where there are only 77 days left before the BTC price establishes a post-halving bull market peak, if history repeats. CryptoBullet said:

“BTC Bull Cycle: only 3 months left. Tick tock, tick tock”

This places the next potential top by October. Many analysts anticipate BTC’s price to reach between $130,000 and $150,000 by the year’s end, with some even predicting a bull run toward $200,000.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Are Not Capitulating Yet

Onchain data further supports a Bitcoin price rally in the coming months. A key metric comparing the activity of new versus old investors, published by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., shows that young coins, representing recent buyers, now account for 30% of overall market activity. The current 30% level is well below the overheated peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024. Both those spikes coincided with local price tops, suggesting that when new investor activity dominates the market, it often marks a period of euphoria and profit-taking. In contrast, today’s reading still allows room for further upside before such conditions set in. The uptrend signals growing demand from new entrants. Meanwhile, long-term holders have not yet shown signs of capitulation. “Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations,” Adler Jr. writes, adding:

“From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.”

This ongoing equilibrium is partly due to strong absorption from institutions. Corporations and ETFs continue to accumulate Bitcoin at a steady pace, helping offset intermittent sell-side pressure. As a result, sufficient supply absorption by these large players has been able to contain short-term selling pressures, keeping the market structurally healthy as it pushes deeper into the late stages of the bull cycle.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Bitcoin Market Cycle and Fractals

Q: What is the "tick-tock" fractal for Bitcoin? A: The "tick-tock" fractal is an analysis tool that suggests Bitcoin tends to reach its market top approximately 518 to 546 days after each halving event. Q: When is the next potential Bitcoin market top predicted? A: Based on this fractal and the April 15, 2024 halving, the next potential market top is predicted for October 2025. Q: What is the expected price range for the next Bitcoin market top? A: Analysts anticipate Bitcoin's price to reach between $130,000 and $150,000, with some predictions going as high as $200,000.

Investor Behavior and Market Health

Q: How does the activity of new versus old investors indicate market health? A: A high percentage of activity from new investors (recent buyers) often signals a market nearing euphoria and profit-taking, typically coinciding with local price tops. Conversely, a lower percentage suggests room for further upside. Q: What does it mean if long-term Bitcoin holders are not capitulating? A: If long-term holders are not capitulating (selling off their holdings in large numbers), it suggests a balanced market where existing holders believe in the continued upward trend, and there is stable demand absorbing sell-side pressure. Q: How do institutional investors impact Bitcoin's market structure? A: Strong absorption from institutions, such as corporations and ETFs, helps to offset short-term selling pressures, contributing to a structurally healthy market. ##Crypto Market AI's Take The analysis of Bitcoin's potential market top in October 2025, driven by the "tick-tock" fractal, highlights the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market. Understanding these cycles is crucial for making informed investment decisions. At Crypto Market AI, we leverage advanced AI tools, including our AI trading bots and AI analysts, to help navigate these complex market dynamics. Our platform provides real-time market analysis and data-driven insights to assist users in identifying potential trends and managing risk. For those looking to deepen their understanding of market analysis and AI's role in trading, exploring our AI Tools Hub and Market Analysis section can offer valuable perspectives. ##More to Read:

Source: Originally published at Cointelegraph on Thu, 31 Jul 2025 17:27:37 GMT

Bitcoin ’tick tock’ fractal predicts 50K BTC price top in October